In order to assess the threat of nuclear terrorism, Allison states that it is necessary to answer five questions:
1. Who could be planning a nuclear terrorist attack?
2. What nuclear weapons could terrorists use?
3. Where could terrorists acquire a nuclear bomb?
4. When could terrorists launch the first nuclear attack?
5. How could terrorists deliver a nuclear weapon to its target?
Allison proposes a strategy for an agenda that “would shrink the risk of nuclear terrorism to nearly zero,” which he refers to as the "Doctrine of Three Nos":
1. No unsecured nuclear weapons or weapons-usable material.
2. No new domestic capabilities to enrich uranium or reprocess plutonium.
3. No expansion of the nuclear club beyond its current 8.5 members, the half being
Without sounding too much like a Graham Allison groupie, I would strongly suggest reading the full op-ed or -- better yet -- reading his book, “Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe,” which explains his argument in much more detail.
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