Nuclear Arms Control and Nonproliferation Highlights of SIPRI Yearbook 2008

On Monday (June 9), the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released its annual yearbook on armaments, disarmament, and international security.

Speaking at the launch of the 2008 yearbook, SIPRI director Dr. Bates Gill noted, “We probably have before us one of the most promising opportunities to see real progress in nuclear-related arms control and nonproliferation than we have seen, at least over the past 10 years.”

Gill alluded approvingly to a recent speech on nuclear nonproliferation policy by presumptive Republican nominee John McCain and applauded presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama for calling for a world free of nuclear weapons (for a series of CACNP summaries and analyses on McCain’s speech and the specifics of the candidates’ arms control and nonproliferation platforms, see here, here, and here).

In addition, Gill spoke highly of the efforts of Kissinger, Schultz, Perry, and Nunn, who, according to Gill, “are arguing very forcefully of the need of the major world powers, particularly the United States and Russia, to take serious steps in the coming years to hold up their side of the bargain that is enshrined in the NPT.” As I noted in a post yesterday, the impact that these men have made on the global debate about nuclear weapons cannot be overstated.

As far as the nuclear arms control and nonproliferation substance of the yearbook, highlights include:

• As of January 2008, the United States continues to deploy 4,075 strategic and non-strategic warheads, while Russia continues to deploy 5,189 such warheads.
• If all nuclear warheads are counted – operational warheads, spares, those in both active and inactive storage, and intact warheads scheduled for later dismantlement – those states that possess nuclear weapons together possess a total of more than 25, 000 warheads, approximately 24,000 of which are in the possession of the U.S. and Russia.
• As of 2007, global stocks of highly enriched uranium (HEU) totaled approximately 1370 tons (not including 346 tons to be blended down).
• As of 2007, global military stocks of separated plutonium totaled approximately 228–282 tons and civilian stocks totaled 244.9 tons.

And to think that before a December 2007 announcement by the Bush administration approving a cut of 4,500 warheads, the United States possessed approximately 10,000 warheads! Despite all of the Bush administration’s talk about how the threats we face today differ from those we faced during the Cold War, our (and Russia’s) nuclear doctrine remains firmly on a Cold War footing. This is a strategic mindset the next president will have to free America's national security bureaucracy from if he hopes to truly reduce our reliance on nuclear weapons.

SIPRI: Nuclear Weapons To Continue Past 2050

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released its annual report on military forces around the globe on Monday, which included some alarming information and analysis on nuclear arms control and non-proliferation.

Among their findings, the Swedish organization reports that…

At the beginning of 2007, the five nuclear weapon states recognized under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)—China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the USA—possessed a total of more than 26 000 nuclear warheads, including deployed weapons, spares and those in both active and inactive storage. All of these states, with the exception of the UK, had significant nuclear weapon modernization programmes under way. …

Today, there are roughly 1700 tonnes of highly enriched uranium (HEU) and 500 tonnes of separated plutonium in the world, sufficient to produce over 100 000 nuclear weapons. Access to these fissile materials is the main technical barrier determining whether a state can acquire nuclear weapons. Russia and the USA possess more than 90 per cent of the fissile materials produced for weapons, but half of the separated plutonium has been produced for civilian purposes. While the five NPT-recognized nuclear weapon states have all stopped producing fissile materials for weapons, India, Pakistan and perhaps Israel and North Korea continue to do so.

“The decisions taken by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council will keep nuclear weapons in their arsenals beyond 2050,” says Ian Anthony, head of SIPRI’s Nonproliferation and Export Control Project.

I am reminded of Albert Einstein’s famous remark: You cannot simultaneously prevent and prepare for war.

For what should be done, make sure to read the article, “A World Free of Nuclear Weapons,” by the unlikely foursome of George Shultz, William Perry, Henry Kissinger and Sam Nunn if you haven’t already done so.