Doreen and Jim McElvany 2009 Nonproliferation Challenge Essay Contest

In order to spur new thinking and policy initiatives to address today's most urgent proliferation threats, the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and its journal, the Nonproliferation Review, are sponsoring an essay contest to identify and publish the most outstanding new scholarly papers and reports in the nonproliferation field. Their priority is to generate new insights and specific recommendations for resolving today's nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons challenges, including those involving both state and non-state actors.

The contest features a $10,000 grand prize and a $1,000 prize for the most outstanding student essay (students are eligible to win the grand prize). Entries should not exceed 10,000 words (including endnotes) and must be the original, unpublished work of the author(s) and not under consideration for publication elsewhere. The submission deadline is May 15, 2009.

Complete contest rules and instructions can be found here.

Analysis of FY2009 Defense Appropriations in the Consolidated Security, Disaster Assistance, and Continuing Appropriations Act (CR) for FY2009

The Center’s Travis Sharp today put out his Analysis of FY2009 Defense Appropriations in the Consolidated Security, Disaster Assistance, and Continuing Appropriations Act (CR) for FY2009. Included below are the summary and the highlights and funding provisions relating to nuclear weapons and nonproliferation issues. The full analysis is available here.

SUMMARY

With members of Congress eager to leave town for the campaign trail, and Fiscal Year (FY) 2009 starting on October 1, Congress slapped together a consolidated appropriations package that includes several appropriations bills and a continuing resolution (known as a ‘CR’) all rolled into one. A CR is designed to fund programs at the previous fiscal year’s levels, usually on a temporary basis, in order to keep the government running. The CR in the consolidated package will fund government operations from October 1, 2008 until March 6, 2009, at which point Congress will have to appropriate more money to keep government programs running through the remainder of FY2009.

The consolidated package includes defense appropriations for FY2009. The package provides $487.7 billion in total defense funding, $4 billion less than the administration’s request but 6.2 percent above the FY2008 funding level. The package does not appropriate any funding for ongoing military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. A FY2009 “bridge” supplemental war funding package of $68.5 billion was already appropriated by Congress in May-June 2008.

The House of Representatives passed the consolidated appropriations package on September 24, 2008. The Senate is expected to pass it in the days ahead.

HIGHLIGHTS

Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) “Nunn-Lugar” – Appropriates $434 million, $20 million above the administration’s request, for the Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) or “Nunn-Lugar” program, which secures vulnerable fissile material in Russia and states of the former Soviet Union.

Prompt Global Strike – Reduces the administration request from $117.6 million to $74.6 million, a cut of $43 million. Prompt Global Strike is an initiative to place conventional warheads atop missiles traditionally used for nuclear warheads. The bill language says the reduction was taken from the alternative re-entry system.

Focus on Near-Term Missile Defense Programs – Lamenting the fact that funding for near-term missile defense programs must be sacrificed each year “to pay for the development of futuristic missile defense programs,” the bill cuts: $70 million from Multiple Kill Vehicles (to $285 million); $16 million from the Airborne Laser; $10 million from the Space Test Bed; and $30 million from the Space Tracking and Surveillance System (STSS) follow-on program. As a consolation prize for these cuts, the bill provides $5 million for a study on space-based interceptors. Reflecting its preference for near-term capabilities, the bill provides an additional $120 million for Ground-Based Missile Defense (GMD), AEGIS Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD), and Theater High Area Altitude Defense (THAAD).

European Missile Defense – The bill provides $467 million for missile defense in Europe. The $467 million total is broken down as follows: $363.3 million for the development and testing of the two-stage interceptors and interceptor site planned for Poland; $76.8 million for the European Midcourse Radar (EMR) planned for the Czech Republic; and $27.1 million for the European Global Engagement Manager and U.S. Communications for the sites. The bill does not provide any funding for the European Based Forward Radar (AN-TPY-2) since a location has not been selected yet for the site. (For more information, see the Center's analysis)

Pattern of Missile Defense Agency Problems – The bill states: “As one of the largest research, development, test and evaluation programs in the Department of Defense, the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) has established a pattern of cost, schedule and performance problems. Tests were delayed or cancelled in fiscal years 2006, 2007 and 2008 and it is not unreasonable to assume that some of the tests planned for fiscal year 2009 will likely slip into subsequent fiscal years.”

FUNDING PROVISIONS

Total Funding (Budget Function 050 excluding war funding)
Administration request: $491.7 billion
Consolidated package: $487.7 billion

DOD Cooperative Threat Reduction Program ("Nunn-Lugar")
Administration request: $414 million
Consolidated package: $434 million

MAJOR WEAPONS SYSTEMS

Ballistic Missile Defense (Missile Defense Agency only)
Administration request: $8.9 billion
Consolidated package: $8.7 billion

KEY POLICY PROVISIONS

Incentives for Downblending Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) – States as U.S. policy that, if Russia agrees to additional HEU downblending after completion of the Russian HEU Agreement, Russia should be permitted to import 4 kilograms of Lowly Enriched Uranium (LEU) per calendar year for every 1 kilogram of HEU that was downblended in the preceding calendar year.

Click here for the full analysis.

Analysis of House-Senate Agreement on the FY2009 Defense Authorization Bill (S.3001)

The Center’s John Isaacs and Travis Sharp today put out a terrific Analysis of House-Senate Agreement on the FY2009 Defense Authorization Bill (S.3001). Included below are the summary and the highlights and funding provisions relating to nuclear weapons and nonproliferation issues. The full analysis is available here.

Facing a full workload before leaving town for the campaign trail and ongoing member objections to earmarks, Congress decided to skip the normal conference procedure for the Fiscal Year (FY) 2009 Defense Authorization bill (S.3001). Working together, the House and Senate produced a joint bill that now must gain final approval from the House and Senate before it can be sent to President Bush for his signature. The House is scheduled to take up the bill on Wednesday, September 24, under an unusual procedure (i.e. suspension calendar) that requires a two-thirds majority vote for passage. The Senate is scheduled to take up the bill before leaving town, probably by this weekend.

The bill fully authorizes the administration’s $542.5 billion National Defense (function 050) request. The bill also authorizes $68.5 billion in "bridge" funding for ongoing military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, for a “base” budget plus “bridge” budget grand total of $611.1 billion. Please note that the “bridge” war funding package was already appropriated by Congress in May-June 2008.

HIGHLIGHTS

European Missile Defense – Authorizes $465.8 million for the missile defense sites in Poland and the Czech Republic, a cut of $246.3 million from the administration request. Bans spending for the procurement, site activation, construction, preparation of equipment for or deployment of a long-range missile defense system in Europe until the two countries have signed and ratified (votes in Parliament) the missile defense basing agreement and a status of forces agreement permitting the stationing of the missiles and the radar and associated personnel. The Secretary of Defense also has to certify that the system “has demonstrated, through successful, operationally realistic flight testing, a high probability of working in an operationally effective manner and the ability to accomplish the mission.” (Section 233, p.78)

Missile Defense Effectiveness Report – Requires an annual report by the Director of Operational Test and Evaluation that characterizes the operational effectiveness, suitability and survivability of all elements of the ballistic missile defense system that have been fielded or tested before the end of the receding fiscal year. (Section 231, p.72) A joint explanatory statement on missile defense problems stated:

We are discouraged to note that the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) Test and Targets program has had another disappointing year. MDA failed to conduct a single intercept flight test of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system during fiscal year 2008, and canceled a planned and budgeted GMD flight test, designated FTG-04. Instead, it conducted a sensor flight test, FTX-03. Over the last several years, MDA has not managed to conduct an average of even one GMD intercept flight test per year, despite the fact that Congress has authorized and appropriated over $200.0 million per year to conduct two flight tests each year.

In addition, a test of the GMD system was aborted in May 2007 when the target failed to reach the necessary altitude, and a flight test of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system was aborted on September 17, 2008, when the target missile failed shortly after launch. (Joint Explanatory Statement on the bill p.15)

Spaced Based Test Bed – Denies any funds for the Space Test Bed for space-based interceptor weapons.

Boost-Phase Missile Defense – Requires an independent study on the feasibility and practicality of boost-phase missile defense. The National Academy of Sciences is also tasked with preparing a report on the same subject. (Section 232, p.73)

Space Posture Review – Requires by December 1, 2009 a space posture review covering the next decade. (Section 913, p.536)

Reliable Replacement Warhead – Redirects all $33.3 million requested for these new nuclear weapons to other, higher priority activities.

Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) “Nunn-Lugar” – Authorizes $434.1 million for this non-proliferation program (an increase of $20 million from the administration request), allocated as follows: $79.9 million for strategic offensive arms elimination in Russia; $ 6.4 million for strategic offensive arms elimination Ukraine; $24.1 million for nuclear weapons storage security in Russia; $40.8 million for nuclear weapons transportation security in Russia; $59.3 million for weapons of mass destruction proliferation prevention in the states of the former Soviet Union; $184.5 million for biological threat reduction in the former Soviet Union; $ 1.0 million for chemical weapons destruction; $ 10.0 million for new Cooperative Threat Reduction initiatives; and $ 20.1 million for “other.” (Section 1302, p.725)

Department of Energy Non-Proliferation Programs – Authorizes: $451.7 million for the Global Threat Reduction Initiative for highly enriched uranium reactor conversion to secure domestic research and test reactors, to secure and remove U.S. origin high risk radiological sources, to secure and remove international high risk radiological sources, and to dispose of U.S. origin highly enriched uranium located outside the United States (an increase of $120 million from the budget request); $339.7 million for the International Nuclear Materials and Cooperation program to secure nuclear weapons and weapons materials outside the United States (an increase of $22 million from the budget request); $300.1 million for non-proliferation verification research and development (an increase of $25 million from the request).

Commission on U.S. Strategic Nuclear Posture – Extends the date for completion of a final report from December 1, 2008 to April 1, 2009 and the expiration date of the commission from June 1, 2009 to September 30, 2009, but still requires an interim report by December 1, 2008 on the commission’s initial findings, conclusions and recommendations. (Section 1060, p.639)

Conventional “Prompt Global Strike” Technology – Requires a report to identify any legal, treaty, or policy related issues that might be associated with prompt global strike, an initiative to place conventional warheads atop missiles traditionally used for nuclear warheads. The report must clarify whether the system itself could be confused with a nuclear weapons system. In addition, the report would set forth a description of the types of targets against which the concept might be used. (Joint Explanatory Statement on the bill, p.31)

Iran Sanctions – Contains no new sanctions on Iran.

Iran Report – Requires an annual report on Iran’s capability to produce nuclear weapons, including its uranium enrichment program and plutonium production capabilities. In addition, the President is required to notify Congress if Iran resumes its nuclear weapons program.

FUNDING PROVISIONS

DIVISION C

Atomic Energy Defense Activities in the Department of Energy (Budget Function 053)
Administration request: $17.3 billion
Authorization bill: $17.4 billion

Click here for the full analysis.

National Security Legislative Wrap-Up

Last week, the Senate completed work on the Fiscal Year 2009 Defense Authorization bill. The House and Senate hope to come to an agreement on the bill before recessing, perhaps by the end of the week. Congress is also hoping to pass a package of three appropriations bills -- Defense, Homeland Security and Military Construction-Veterans' Administration -- by the end of the week. In the meantime, the Bush Administration is putting heavy pressure on Congress to attach the latest version of the U.S.-India nuclear deal to the Continuing Resolution -- a bill to provide temporary funding early in a fiscal year when Congress has not completed funding on appropriations bills.

KEY 2008 NATIONAL SECURITY BILLS

FISCAL YEAR 2009 DEFENSE APPROPRIATIONS BILL

Congressional leaders hope to pass a package of three appropriations bills -- Defense, Homeland Security and Military Construction-Veterans' Administration -- before recessing at the end of this week.

FISCAL YEAR 2009 DEFENSE AUTHORIZATION BILL

On September 18, the Senate approved the bill by a vote of 88 - 8. It did so only after negotiating a “managers’ package” of about 100 amendments that died because it required unanimous consent to be added to the bill. As some Republicans objected to about $5 billion in earmarks in the report accompanying the bill, the Senate approved the measure for the most part as reported out of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

The House and Senate hope to come to an agreement on a common bill before recessing, perhaps by the end of the week.

U.S. INDIA NUCLEAR DEAL

On September 10, the Bush Administration submitted the latest version of the U.S.-India nuclear deal, a so-called "123" agreement, to Congress. The Administration is pressuring Congress to approve the agreement before finishing its work for the year. It may be attached to the Continuing Resolution -- a bill to provide temporary funding early in a fiscal year when Congress has not completed funding on appropriations bills.

SANCTIONS ON IRAN

Sens. Dodd and Shelby tried to get the Iran sanctions measure attached to the Fiscal Year 2009 Defense Authorization Bill, but the measure was included in a "managers' amendment" of about 100 amendments that never received unanimous consent to be included in the bill.

Senate Consideration of the FY08 Defense Authorization Bill

The Defense Authorization Bill is dead. Long live the Defense Authorization Bill.

In a scene of considerable weirdness, the Senate yesterday approved the $612.5 Defense Authorization Bill by a vote of 88 – 8. It did so only after leaving behind a “managers’ package” of about 100 amendments that was all wrapped up with a big bow on it.

Because the package required unanimous consent to be added to the bill, and some Republicans objected to about $5 billion in earmarks in the report accompanying bill, the Senate approved the measure basically as reported out of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

After more than a week of work, the Senate considered four amendments on September 10 and zero amendments after that.

Thus there is no amendment endorsing the Iraq War surge.

There is no amendment placing more sanctions on Iran.

There is no amendment on the third missile defense site in Poland and the Czech Republic.

There is no amendment on a congressional role on any long-term agreement signed by the U.S. and Iraq.

Republicans also objected to a conference committee with the House of Representatives to reconcile the two bills, but there are procedural ways that the conference agreement can be concluded and approved by the end of next week when Congress is scheduled to leave town.

Stay tuned.

Update on the FY08 Defense Authorization Bill

The Senate voted yesterday for cloture to end debate on the bill. The vote was 61 – 32, with 13 Republicans, many up for election in 2008, voting for cloture. The result is that completion of the bill may now speed up and a number of non-germane amendments will fall by the wayside. In the meantime, the Senate yesterday continued meandering through the bill, with no recorded votes since September 10 except for cloture.

Most of the action on the bill is behind the scenes in negotiations led by Sens. Carl Levin (D-MI) and John Warner (R-VA). Apparently, there are as many as 90 amendments that will be included in the mother of all “managers’ package” of so-called non-controversial amendments that will be adopted all at one time. The Senate hopes to complete consideration of the bill today. There still could be recorded votes on endorsing the troops surge in Iraq and earmarks.

Speaking of hopes, the Senate and House Armed Services Committees also hope to complete the process of working through the differences between the chambers’ versions of the bills and producing a conference report before Congress recesses or adjourns at the end of next week.

Major Senate Amendments to FY08 Defense Authorization Bill

The Senate may vote today on two amendments – one from Lieberman, one from Levin-Reed – debating the effects of the troop surge in Iraq. The Senate also may vote on a Webb amendment on a long-term agreement with Iraq. Senators are attempting to reach agreement on a list of amendments to be debated. If no deal is reached, the Senate is scheduled to vote Tuesday afternoon on a motion to limit debate on the bill.

Highlighted below are amendments related to nuclear weapons and nonproliferation issues. New information is bolded and italicized. Amendments are divided into:

• Weapons Of Mass Destruction
• Other Foreign Policy Issues/Terrorism
• Misc. Pentagon, Department Of Energy Issues
• Amendments Already Considered

WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION

Missile defense in Europe

Sens. Sessions (R-AL), Nelson (D-NE), Lieberman (I-CT), Kyl (R-AZ), Inhofe (R-OK), Graham (R-SC), Vitter (R-LA), Brownback (R-KS), and Chambliss (R-GA) filed amendment No. 5536 offering a sense of the Senate that the United States should fully fund and proceed with the deployment of a missile defense system in Europe as soon as technically feasible.

Missile defense in Europe

Sen. Nelson (D-FL) filed amendment No. 5562 offering a sense of the Senate that while the Senate recognizes the importance of decisions taken by the Governments of Poland and the Czech Republic, it reaffirms that no funding should be obligated until the system has demonstrated through "successful, operationally realistic flight testing, that it has a high probability of accomplishing its mission in an operationally effective manner."

Sustainment of Minuteman III ICBMs

Sens. Hatch (R-UT), Bennett (R-UT), and Inhofe (R-OK) filed amendment No. 5547 offering a sense of the Senate that a national security risk may be created if production of the Minuteman III Intercontinental Ballistic Missile ceases without plans to repair or replace motors if needed after 2010.

Sense of Congress on renewal of START I treaty

Sen. Bingaman (D-NM) filed amendment No. 5423 to express the sense of Congress that the President should renew the treaty between the U.S. and Russia on the Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms, signed at Moscow July 31, 1991 (commonly referred to as the “START I Treaty”), before the expiration date of December 5, 2009.

Study on surveillance of nuclear weapons stockpile

Sen. Bingaman (D-NM) filed amendment No. 5424 to conduct an independent technical study of the efforts of the National Nuclear Security Administration to monitor the aging of, and to detect defects related to aging in, nuclear weapons components and materials that could affect the reliability of nuclear weapons currently in the nuclear weapons stockpile.

Restrictions on nuclear agreement with Russia

Sen. Coleman (R-MN) filed amendment No. 5362 to prevent the United States from entering into an agreement for cooperation with Russia pursuant to section 123 of the Atomic Energy Act until the following certifications have been made: 1) Russia has suspended all nuclear assistance to Iran and all transfers of advanced conventional weapons and missiles to Iran, or Iran has completely, verifiably, and irreversibly dismantled all nuclear enrichment-related and reprocessing-related programs; and 2) all Russian forces have been withdrawn from the undisputed territory of the sovereign state of Georgia.

Report on incentives for U.S. Air Force personnel working on nuclear weapons

Sen. Conrad (D-ND) filed amendment No. 5367 to require a report on assessing the feasibility, advisability, utility, and cost effectiveness of establishing new retention bonuses or assignment incentive pay for members of the Air Force involved in the operation, maintenance, handling, and security of nuclear weapons.

Annual report on military power of Iran

Sen. Brownback (R-KS) filed amendment No. 5360 to require the Secretary of Defense to submit to the appropriate committees of Congress an annual report, in both unclassified and classified form, on the current and future military and security strategy of Iran.

Airborne laser

Sen. Brownback (R-KS) filed amendment No. 5359 on the airborne laser system.

OTHER FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES/TERRORISM

Iran sanctions

Sens. Dodd (D-CT) and Shelby (R-AL) filed amendment Nos. 5485 and 5572, the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act of 2008.

Enhanced partnership with Pakistan

Sens. Biden (D-DE), Kerry (D-MA) and Hagel (R-NE) filed amendment No. 5374 to: 1) authorize governmental assistance funds to Pakistan of up to $1.5 billion per year in each of the next five fiscal years; 2) restrict military assistance funds after FY 2010 unless it is certified that Pakistani security forces are making concerted efforts to fight Al Qaeda and the Taliban and not interfering in Pakistan’s political and judicial processes; and 3) require a comprehensive, cross-border strategy for working with Pakistan, Afghanistan, NATO, and other like-minded allies to best implement effective counterterrorism and counterinsurgency measurers.

Counterterrorism report

Sens. Bob Casey (D-PA) and Chuck Hagel (R-NE) filed Amendment No. 5299 to require the Executive Branch to produce a semiannual comprehensive report on the status of U.S. efforts, and the level of progress achieved to date, to combat and defeat al Qaeda and its affiliates under the Global War on Terrorism.

South and Central Asia

Sens. Biden (D-DE) and Lugar (R-IN) filed amendment No. 5441 to create the position of special envoy for South and Central Asia regional cooperation.

MISC. PENTAGON, DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY ISSUES

Director of independent cost assessment

Sens. Levin (D-MI), McCain (R-AZ) and Akaka (D-HI) filed amendment No. 5353 to create a Director of Independent Cost Assessment in the Department of Defense responsible for monitoring and reviewing all cost estimates and cost analyses conducted in connection with major defense acquisition programs.

Providing assistance in major attacks

Sen. Feingold (D-WI) filed amendment No.5300 requiring the establishment Within the Armed Forces of units for assistance in managing consequences of incidents of national significance involving a Chemical, Biological, Radiological, or Nuclear Device, or High-Yield Explosives.

Military inventory system

Sen. Sanders (I-VT), Feingold (D-WI) and Whitehouse (D-RI) filed amendment No. 5320 to improve inventory systems of the military departments and reducing the acquisition of unnecessary secondary inventory. The amendment would fence off $100 million in inventory purchases until the Secretary of Defense makes some required certifications about reducing inventories beyond requirements.

MAJOR AMENDMENTS CONSIDERED

Missile defense

Sens. Kyl (R-AZ), Warner, Vitter, Inhofe, Martinez, Levin amendment No. 5414 modified from an earlier version earmarking $89 million to deploy the missile defense X-band radar at a classified location was adopted by voice vote on September 10.

Missile defense

Sens. Vitter (R-LA), Inhofe (R-OK) and Kyl (R-AZ) amendment No. 5280 to increase missile defense funding was defeated 39 – 57 on September 10. The amendment would have added $100 million for Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system and $171 million for other missile defense programs, including up to $87 million for the Ground Based Midcourse Defense.

National Security Legislative Wrap-Up

The Senate began work on the Fiscal Year 2009 Defense Authorization bill last week, and hopes to complete consideration of the bill by tomorrow. Also last week, the Senate Defense Appropriations Subcommittee approved the Fiscal Year 2009 Defense Appropriations bill, but the House Appropriations Committee postponed its planned mark-up of its version. It is no longer clear that this appropriations bill will be completed before the congressional session ends in a few weeks.

KEY 2008 NATIONAL SECURITY BILLS

FISCAL YEAR 2009 DEFENSE APPROPRIATIONS BILL

On September 10, the Senate Defense Appropriations Subcommittee approved a $487.7 billion Fiscal Year 2009 Defense Appropriations Bill by voice vote. The bill is $4 billion less than requested by the President but 6.2% above last year's enacted level. It is now uncertain whether the bill will be completed before the end of this session, although it could be taken up in a lame duck session. The measure may become the vehicle for the Fiscal Year 2009 Continuing Resolution, a bill to provide temporary funding early in a fiscal year when Congress has not completed funding on appropriations bills.

FISCAL YEAR 2009 DEFENSE AUTHORIZATION BILL

The Senate took up the bill last week, but voted on only a few amendments. In the most significant vote thus far, a Vitter (R-LA) amendment to increase missile defense funding was defeated 39 – 57. There are about 200 amendments remaining on the bill, but Armed Services Committee Chairman Levin (D-MI) hopes to complete work on the bill early this week. Senate Majority Leader Reid (D-NV) has filed cloture on the bill to limit debate. According to hill publications, amendments on earmarks, the Iraq surge and military absentee ballots are holding up the bill.

RUSSIA "123" NUCLEAR AGREEMENT

The agreement is dead for the year in the wake of the conflict between Russia and Georgia. The Bush Administration has formally withdrawn the measure from Congress, although it could be reconsidered next year.